Europe declining

I’ve been a fan of European Union because of common currency and free movement of goods and people. But when I think about the future of Europe the clouds are darkening. And in this text Europe includes EU-countries and excludes Switzerland and Norway which to my opinion are doing very well. Europe wants to be the economic and cultural powerhouse of the world. But for the economic side we have a long way to go…

Europe is often put face-to-face with the USA. As Americans are in favor of free economy with laws promoting entrepreneurship, Europe still lives decades past. Below few reasons why I think that Europe will fall behind the USA in future:

1) Work culture: Americans work a lot which obviously brings wealth. It is estimated that an average European works only 70% of the time of an average American. And few Europeans would work without 4 week summer and one week winter holidays. In Scandinavia it’s impossible to get anything done in July, and the whole Southern Europe is having a vacation in August. Americans usually take only two to three weeks off a year, and some manage the year without holidays that of course is not advisable. People need to get holidays but thinking from the entrepreneur’s side what is the point of paying people for drinking beer at their cottage for 4 weeks?

2) Social welfare system: It is common saying in Finland that it is a jackpot to be born in Finland. I have to add that it is also a jackpot to be unemployed in Scandinavia, at least comparing to many other areas. Government will take care of you until one dies even one wouldn’t have any medical reasons for unemployment. In order to provide all this the taxation is high and for instance a person earning €100,000 a year in Finland will have around €58,000 to spend after taxation. In the USA with the same income one would have around €72,000 for spending. My point is not to put down tax system as I’m getting value for my money in hospitals, in well-maintained roads etc. Good question though is whether it motivates to work? And even a better question: How an earth aging European countries can sustain current welfare systems when the supported age groups are growing, and the age group of people who pay all this is decreasing…?
3) Immigration policies: The USA has welcomed immigrations from all over the world for over a century, and is currently taking around 1 million legal immigrants annually. These immigrants learn fast that in order to survive one must work hard to realize an “American dream”. The USA is the place where the worlds most talented come and enjoy the same opportunities as Americans itself. European countries are patriotic and the settlement of immigrants has gone truly wrong which has provided the uprising of xenophobic political parties. People are frightened to lose their jobs to immigrants. Wrong. Legal immigrants should be seen as opportunities instead of threads, and honestly saying the immigrants are the future of Europe. Currently Europe is not providing a lot of opportunities for the worlds talented that needs to be changed through law enforcement and especially inside people’s minds.

4) Entrepreneurship: European history has always urged on unity and solidarity. Labor unions have a lot of power, and there has been a contrast between the labour and leaders. Maybe the best example of this is France where people go on strike with slight reasons, and take factory directors as hostages after lay-offs. Europe is bureaucratic and establishing a company is made difficult and expensive. In my opinion government’s job is not to provide full employment for everyone. Instead its job is to provide an opportunity for entrepreneurs and new companies to grow profitably that ultimately creates new jobs. The USA is the land of entrepreneurs and if one endeavor fails, another is already in entrepreneurs mind.

5) History: Europe is often referring to its historical heritage in the areas of culture, arts, renaissance, sports, wars etc. In order for Europe not to be mainly a tourist destination in future, we have to start living the moment. This means more cooperation between the countries and upright decisions to motivate people to innovate and work hard. It also means accepting immigrants to help the work needs of aging population.

Being a European I truly wish that my prognoses are wrong but for that we need to walk the talk and take action.

-Mikael

Top 3 countries and cities in 2030?

During the last week I’ve made some prognoses about the future in the world of different countries and cities. Let me start to explain my motivation for doing this. I’ve been interested in geography all my life and my mother always reminds me of the fact that I knew all the countries and their capitals by the age of 8. I still have the same world Atlas published in 1992 that I scrolled through on the living room floor of my grandparents’ house. In this atlas there are 187 countries mentioned. Actually this Atlas was published right after huge changes were made in European area. Soviet Union broke under several states, Germany had become united, and Yugoslavia had seperated to many different countries.

In addition, I’ve always found it intriguing to search information about countries and especially cities inside. I also think that the world has changed a lot during the last decades. After all, who would have foreseen after the Second World War that Germany and Japan would be in top three economies at the turn of the millennium? Or that tiny Finland, that suffered huge losses in wars on the 40s, would be a model country in education and technology. And that the same country of sauna and snow would give birth to one of the most innovative companies, Nokia, in the century.

I’d like to give my own prediction of the world economic powers and places in 2030. First of all it is really hard to specify countries and cities as I believe that the world will little by little lose its borders due to breakthrough of internet. Europe has already done it at least on paper creating European Union, and Asia and the Middle East are on the way.

I currently feel that the world superpowers are USA, EU, and Japan. Important decisions are done in these three regions even China and Russia have shown their power. City centers of the world at the beginning of 2009 are still New York, London and Tokyo.

So here is the list of my top three countries in 2030:

1. USA
2. China
3. Germany

And why?

I just have to admit that the United States will always land to its feet even it doesn’t look too good now with huge debt level and problems affecting the whole country. However, US will be able to use its strength; lifetime opportunities to be something to people all around the world. This is a huge competitive tool in the world of decreasing borders.

It won’t be hard to justify China’s presence on the list. China is developing at a huge rate and so far government has done a good job of controlling the mess. China has huge foreign exchange reserves base so it will not be too vulnerable to financial crisis in the world.

Germans are hard-working and cost-efficient people, and despite of the changing world towards East I believe that Germany will keep its affluence and power. When Germany finds a solution to its immigration “problems” and decreases its protectionism Germany is on the roll.

After these three countries I also expect a lot from Russia and India but current development is not enough.


And city areas:

1. New York
2. Shanghai
3. Guangzhou/Hong Kong

New York will always be New York. “Big Apple” is a place for a dream come true as well as lost hopes. Stepping into New York is an experience as it’s impossible not to feel the beat of Manhattan while in the city. Washington is near and listening carefully what Wall Street and other affluent New Yorkers are saying. New York is a real melting pot, crime rate is down, and public transit functions well. The city to be in the States.

Shanghai is on the vast growing phase which I belive it will be able to handle it by strict law enforcement. China is growing and Shanghai will be its economical locomotive. I believe that Shanghai is already the controlling city in Asia even Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong are near. Chinese have huge potential that is pouring to Shanghai, and it has also grown into a city that an expat can think of living in. And World Expo 2010 won’t decrease Shanghai’s importance in world order. The one thing that dropped Shanghai from being number one is huge population growth as people from countryside flock into the metropolis that will create troubles in future.

Guangzhou and Hong Kong are generating a business center in South-East China that creates a lot of business in future. Over 100 kilometres separate the cities currently but I believe that by 2030 the cities are in association. Pearl River Delta is one of the China’s most potential manufacturing and commercial regions, and Guangzhou is the main hub of the region. Hong Kong is a modern city and being already one of the financial capitals of the world it will bring the tandem a needed push to get the wheels rolling.

And to the countries that I wouldn’t give too much promise in next decades:

Southern European countries will face a lot of problems as nations are aging, governments are too bureaucratic, and tourism is diversifying around the world. Especially Greece, Portugal and Italy are in trouble without urgent actions. People feel that the countries keep going without concrete work and action as we can witness with Berlusconi being able to run Italy in a way that is just not acceptable. I still can’t understand that people voted him for another term. Southern European countries are living too much in a history but previous glory won’t help in future.

Japan has been in stagflation for years and I can’t see it growing big any time soon. Few problems are lack of natural resources, language skills, poor land connections to neighbouring countries and large cultural differences.

I’ve been in favour of EU but I can see clouds over union that I will comment more on my following texts.

And city areas:

Some of the cities I feel will lose its presence are Los Angeles, Tokyo and Mumbai. Even Los Angeles has Hollywood and all the glamour I don’t think it will last. First of all the city is on a bad spot environmentally with regular earthquakes. Secondly, public transport is non-existent creating vast traffic jams and loss of time. Third, people in LA are too much for the glory and wrong kind of ambition of fairy tales comparing to New Yorkers for instance.

Tokyo is a city that I can’t really get. A lot of people, everything in Japanese letters, and no nature anywhere nearby. To me it won’t work on a long term. Especially as it’s also locked by sea from other countries.

Everyone talks about the potential of Mumbai, and I have to admit that there are a lot of things going on there. But after visiting Mumbai it’s a real mess of traffic jams, slums, people and inequality.

Above opinions are just my own prognoses about future, and I’d like to hear your version about the world in 2030…

- Mikael

Opinion-editorial for Finnish readers

Below my opinion-editorial on latest VAT-reforms in Finland. It was published and referred to on the cover page on Helsingin Sanomat (August 29, 2009).

Selkeyttä hallituksen päätöksiin, kiitos!

Olen ihmeissäni hallituksen budjettiriihen päätöksestä ottaa makeisvero käyttöön. Minua ei sinänsä haittaa, että sokerituotteita aletaan verottaa, vaan ennen kaikkea tyyli, jolla se tuotiin esiin. Makeisverosta tai virvoitusjuomien valmisteverosta ei käytännössä tiedetä muuta kuin että veron kanto aloitetaan jossain vaiheessa ensi vuoden puolella. Vuonna 1999 makeisvero oli 3,50 markkaa kilolta. Paljonko tämä kertoo tulevan veron määrästä? En haluaisi edes tietää minkälaisen hämmennyksen tilassa on esimerkiksi makeis- ja virvoitusjuomateollisuus, jonka tuotteisiin ja toimintaan veroilla on suora vaikutus.

Hämmennystä lisää entisestään arvonlisäverokikkailu, joka on saanut jo koomisia piirteitä. Eikö päättäjille tullut mieleen ravintolaruuan arvonlisävero, kun elintarvikkeiden veroa päätettiin laskea? Ja sitten tulevan vuoden heinäkuussa muutetaan jälleen arvonlisäveroa, mikä tarkoittaa että niin kaupoilla kuin valmistajilla menee järjestelmät uusiksi juuri silloin, kun puoli Suomea on lomalla. Positiivisena asiana voi sanoa, että harjoittelu tekee mestarin, ja syyskuun arvonlisäveromuutoksen jälkeen ensi vuoden heinäkuu menee jo rutiinilla. Tosin näin tuskin ajattelevat arvonlisäveromuutoksia tekevät työntekijät, jotka hukkaavat näin arvokkaita työtunteja.

Nyt vaatisinkin hallitukselta suoraselkäisyyttä ja käytännönläheisyyttä päätöksiin, ja tulevat veromuutokset selkeinä prosentteina ja päivämäärinä julkisuuteen mahdollisimman pian. Ei luulisi olevan liikaa vaadittu....

Mikael Mäkinen
Kauppatieteiden yo

Keep on shining...

Well, well, summer has passed and I’ve been on holiday at least from blog writing. Next I’ll briefly describe some of the events during the summer. My main focus for the summer has been on my internship at Procter & Gamble. I’ve really enjoyed my time and I could imagine continuing there after my master thesis. Work atmosphere at P&G is great and people are friendly. I also like the fact that working is made easy at the workplace and processes run smoothly which is not always the case what I’ve heard from my friends. Good experience on the work side was also a three-day training course in Stockholm with other Scandinavian trainees. It’s always nice to share experiences with people in the same situation.

Outside work I’ve enjoyed the Finnish summer at its best. The weather has been sunny since the end of June and nothing beats the beautiful Finnish summer. It’s funny to see how people change in Finland depending on the weather. During the winter streets are empty, sun goes down around 4 pm, people are just wandering palely to work or school and the only thing to wait for is a winter holiday to Lapland or Asia. Or summer. On spring time it already get’s better as people begin to undress their winter clothes. But during the summer the Finns really get it going. Everyone is out on the streets, parks, summer cottages, festivals (and there are many), terraces and beaches. Skin is tanned and the mood relaxed. I just hope that the autumn depression won’t hit the country anytime soon.

One of the specialties of the Finnish summer is the Midsummer festival that dates to third weekend of June. The sun actually doesn’t get down at all during the Midsummer which makes it hard to know what time of the day it is. The Midsummer is usually celebrated in either of the two ways: At the cottage with family/friends or at the music festivals with tens of thousands others. This year I picked them both and we spent cool time at friend’s cottage for one day and another day at Himos festival in Central Finland. It feels like there has been a festival every weekend of the summer and my tour has taken me to Ruisrock and Down by the Laituri (DBTL) in Turku, and of course to my hometown’s Tammerfest.

Finland has also been a destination for some damn good concerts this summer. I shouldn’t have gone to any of those but with last minute decisions I went to see Britney Spears Circus Tour to Hartwall Arena and Madonna Sticky and Sweet Tour to outside concert with 85 000 others. I have to admit that both of the decisions were right and also thank the organizers of Madonna concert to control the biggest Madonna tour crowd in Europe in such a professional way. Madonna really is a star and whole Helsinki seemed to go crazy about her. Media was writing and talking only about her, boat and air traffic stopped during her performance and work places must have been really inefficient before and after her concert. She is still a human being even she sings and dances well. That’s why I’d like to get some of the energy her visit took to some more important things as well like defeating the recession for instance....

Most of the hotels would be jealous of the occupancy rate of my studio in Helsinki as there always seems to be someone in Helsinki when I’ve traveled to Turku, Tampere or Stockholm. But I have to admit that it’s nice to go around Helsinki with friends to places like Seurasaari, Suomenlinna, Linnanmäki and Kaivohuone. It feels rather sad to leave Helsinki at the end of August to go back to Tampere to finish my thesis but I’m pretty sure to come back.

My ex-flatmate Tero, who ran a Stockholm marathon with me in May, is currently working in Vancouver, Canada. I planned to book flights to visit him and after quick Skype-chats we decided to make it a month vacation in October including Texas and Panama. Top3-countries where I want to go are Panama, Fiji and Tanzania so I can’t wait to see Panama, and also Tero of course…

After Stockholm marathon I took a quick break from running before starting to practice for Helsinki marathon that takes place this Saturday, August 15. My goal is to run under 3:30 and I will do my best to achieve it. Naturally I thought some things that might fail like stomach, body not absorbing liquids, knees or calves but than I stopped. Thinking those things were only a waste of my brain capacity. It’s better to be positive and now I only concentrate on enjoying my Saturday afternoon on the streets of Helsinki.

I haven’t been writing too often to my blog but now I promise to have at least one writing each month. The feedback has been good but almost everyone wants more texts. For the Finnish readers I also recommend to take a look on the blog of Forsal adventure sports club at http://forsal.blogspot.com where ten different bloggers including me take their turns to write weekly about interesting matters affecting their lives. Feel also free to comment those texts as well as my own ones in this blog.

Enjoy your week!

Summer feelings

A lot has happened in two months. I can’t believe how lucky I have been when I read my last post. My fears of potential long-term damage to my body and summer without sports have really turned around. I have also found a great summer work and I feel that my life is pretty balanced without extra-stress. So what happened?

The last weeks in April were full of visits to different specialists and almost my entire body went under MRI at the hospital. Finally the results revealed that the hit in Brazil only cost a temporary neurological mismatch and I could begin training and normal life immediately even it might hurt for awhile. It was hard to keep me still and I can’t tell how happy I was to hear the news.

On the same week with the revealing information I also got a call from the Country Manager of Procter & Gamble. After several interview rounds and tests I was chosen as a summer intern in their Customer Business Development division in Espoo. I began my work few weeks ago and so far the working atmosphere and people are just great not to mention my interesting projects.

The last week of April was really one of the best for the longest time as me and my good friend Perttu received an e-mail from FIFA confirming that we have received tickets to Football World Cup final 2010 in South Africa! My long-lasting dream has been to watch the final on the spot but I couldn’t have imagined that it could happen so soon.

In mid-May I moved to Helsinki and fortunately the capital’s housing problems didn’t really affect me as I got a studio next to downtown in Kamppi due to my friends’ postings in England. Helsinki is really a summer city and to be honest only Stockholm and maybe my home town Tampere can beat it to my experience.

Actually Stockholm escapade is close to my mind as I just came from there last Monday with my friends Tero (ex-flatmate from Sky Bar) and Teemu (occassional night runner in Sky Bar). Originally we were there to support Tero’s attempt to run his first marathon. However, at the end I also decided to run. Stockholm Marathon was sold out months ago but after some tricks and luck I was able to start.


During the marathon I really had some time to think the past and I have never enjoyed running this much despite the usual cramps and stomach problems. Doctors said that I shouldn’t even think of marathon before autumn so the result was a reveal as I had no idea of my current fit and sunny 25 degree day didn’t help my doubts at the starting line. There could have been many excuses not to run but those should never defeat the determination. That was one of the reasons why before the marathon I asked Tero to write Lance Armstrong’s quote onto my right hand:

”Pain is temporary but quitting lasts forever”


I guess that I stared that text the last 10 kilometers but the result was my personal record 3:37:58. From this result it is good to head for Helsinki City Marathon on August 15 with the goal to break 3:30. Lately I have found how much fun running can be and looking at the sidewalks the whole Finland seems to be on the running boom as well. So go to buy good joggers and head out!

Brazil

It has been long time since the last post but I hope you don’t mind as the purpose of the blog is not to force myself to write. Two-week journey to Brazil was even more fun as I had supposed and we really had cool time in the sun. On the plane going there we agreed that “what happens in Brazil, stays in Brazil” but I got a permission to write just vaguely about the trip.

First of all I really fell in love with Brazil. It was a huge contrast to sometimes little stressful life back home in Finland. People are friendly and relaxed, weather is great, and there’s a lot to do in a country of samba and football. We stayed first week in Rio de Janeiro and a second one few hours outside of Rio in Buzios that is a popular holiday spot for rich Brazilians and Argentinians tourists. We were a group of 28 students, out of which 20 girls, so I was rather scared of the outcome as we were going to one of the most dangerous cities in the world, at least according to an international press. However, only one camera was stolen and only minor problems were sniffles that most of us got during the trip.

Rio is so far the best city I have been. Below are top 5 things to do to my experience:

1. Beaches: Scroll around the beaches of Copacabana and Ipanema, sun bath, play beach volley or other beach sports, or just relax by watching beautiful Cariocas (people from Rio) have fun. However, the best beach is less than an hour west of Rio in Barra da Tijuca.

2. Favelas: Notorious favelas are a must see but I would skip touristic tours and go to explore by oneself. We were lucky enough to meet Diego who toured us around and showed his home. I guess I have never eaten under such security as we did when the local drug lord came to eat in a same family restaurant; first came the black jeep with smoked windows, than a dozen guys with assault riffles and hand guns. I didn’t feel unsafe in a favela but I can imagine that it gets little rough occassionally.

3. Football match in Maracana: Trip to Brazil is not a real one without a game in legendary Maracana that once took inside over 200,000 spectators and will be the host of World Cup final in 2014. We saw a local derby Botafogo-Vasco da Gama in the fan area of Vasco. The atmosphere was just amazing, especially as Vasco won 4-2. I’ve been to El Clásico in Barcelona but the continuous singing and dancing of fans in Maracana beats its ambiance.

4. Christ the Redeemer and Santa Teresa: A statue of Jesus Christ is marvellous and the 360 degree view from the top on a clear day is just great. Also the trip up there by train is interesting. In a neighbourhood of Santa Teresa it is possible to sense the relaxed Rio and taste traditional feijoada (black beans and meat). Also the trip to Centro by electric tram (Bonde) is a good experience, especially if you don’t buy a ticket that means hanging onto the train outside.

5. Bike tour around Lake Rodrigo de Freitas and beaches: Rent a bike somewhere on the beach and start exercising. People-watching on the beach road and wonderful scenery by the lake makes kilometers go fast. Brazilians love to do sports which one will notice on the way. It seems that in Rio it’s sports time 24/7.

Other great things in Rio include the Sugar Loaf, Friday night party in Lapa, and a jog in Urca neighbourhood. We also visited the local business school Ibmec that was a good experience. For instance, their finance study group is doing a trip to meet Warren Buffett personally in Omaha. I could imagine studying in Ibmec but so far they don’t have study agreements with Scandinavian universities.

After hectic Rio it was time for some pool and party in Buzios. We really made a grand entrance to our hotel after the bus driver who took us there claimed that our money was counterfeited. Well, after further investigations and hotel guests approving it really seemed that around 50 percent of our 20 real bills were fake. Funny because we had collected the money from 28 different people but there appears to be a lot of fake notes circulating in Brazil.

Otherwise Buzios was good food, company, relaxing and some weekend partys. We were lucky as we popped into two Cariocas who had come from Rio to an anniversary party of a fancy club. They liked our line-up and got us tickets to that private party. We were probably not at the highest income bracket of that party but it’s always fun to party with hundreds of celebrities (and even more wannabe celebs) and models from Rio and Sao Paulo.

All in all it was a great holiday with cool people and I can’t wait to be back in Brazil!

But after the journey hit the reality. I was diagnosed with sinus and lung infection as well as taken a salmonella specimen. Than on Friday after the journey in our company meeting my left part of the body suddenly become numb. I couldn’t fully feel my foot, fingers, tongue or face. My friends took me immediately to hospital and after night’s research I was able to go home with relief. It shouldn’t be anything dangerous but neurologigal examination is still ongoing. These symptoms are probably due to a huge hit I got to my backbone in Brazil when I lost my balance and fell to a big stone.

That weekend also gave me some important things to consider. I found out that I haven’t acted my talk. I always preach about living a day. However, this winter I haven’t lived my days as they would be my last ones. I’ve worked late nights at uni and taken responsibilities of the issues that I shouldn’t really get involved. This has led me to neglect more important things like health, family and friends. That night in hospital bed couldn’t have been more distant from Ipanema beach in Rio. Those thougts at hospital should the latest calm down the pace of my life or that life won’t be lived fully for too long. I hope everyone can make this decision before it’s too late.

Opinion-editorial for Finnish readers

Below my opinion-editorial that was published in today's Aamulehti (7.3.2009) regarding political debate and the future of Finnish welfare state.

Kriisipäätöksiä

Olemme viime aikoina saaneet seurata lehdistä poliitikkojen, opiskelijoiden ja työmarkkinajärjestöjen välistä nokkapokkaa uusista lakiuudistuksista. Kaiken tämän taakse jäävät helposti asiat, joista keskustellaan.

Mielestäni Matti Vanhanen tiivisti vaihtoehdot hyvin keskiviikon (4.3.2009) Aamulehdessä: “ leikataan menoja, nostetaan veroja tai pidennetään työuria.” Monet oppositiossa kritisoivat vain sen takia, että hallitusta tulee aina kritisoida. Mielestäni kritiikin sijaan tulee esittää konkreettisia ehdotuksia eikä aina vain taistella muutosta vastaan.

Tilastojen (Tilastokeskus 2007) mukaan yli 65-vuotiaiden osuus koko Suomen väestöstä ennustetaan nousevan 16 prosentista 26 prosenttiin vuoteen 2030 mennessä. Haluaisinkin kuulla mitä suunnitelmia päättäjillä on tämän suhteen. Nykyistä järjestelmää ei vain voi ylläpitää tulevalla väestörakenteella. Jostain on tingittävä…

Mielestäni verojen korotukset voi haudata saman tien, sillä se ei tekisi työn teosta ainakaan nykyistä houkuttelevampaa, jolloin kokonaisverotulot laskisivat. Menojen leikkaukset ja työuran pidentäminen jäänevät siis vaihtoehdoiksi. Jos kumpaankaan ei kuitenkaan olla valmiita, niin mistä rahaa sitten saadaan, kun valtionvelka on jo muutenkin nousussa?

Hyvänä esimerkkinä toimii valmisteilla oleva yliopistolakiuudistus, jonka avulla yliopistot saavuttaisivat taloudellisen autonomian ja voisivat helpommin hankkia ulkopuolista rahoitusta. En vain pysty ymmärtämään, miten laista on tullut niin kauhea kohu, ja Tampereen yliopistolla on muun muassa perustettu ”Toimiva yliopisto” – järjestö vastustamaan lakiuudistusta. Mistä yliopistot aikovat tulevaisuudessa sitten saada laadukkaaseen tutkimukseen ja opetukseen vaadittavat rahat, kun valtion menoja on pakko karsia? Yksityinen sektori tai toiveajattelulla saatavat miljoonalahjoitukset jäänevät ainoiksi vaihtoehdoiksi, joita kuitenkin lakia vastustamalla juuri torpataan.

On todettava, että hallitus on ollut ripeä toimissaan, mutta kriisitilanteissa tulee toimia nopeasti. Päättäjien tulisikin hetkeksi unohtaa poliittinen peli, ja keskittyä siihen mikä on välttämätöntä, ja Suomen kansalle pitkällä tähtäimellä parasta. On niin helppo sanoa, että lakiesitys tai ehdotus on huono, mutta järkevän ja asiat kokonaisuutena huomioonottavien vastaehdotusten tekeminen on huomattavasti haastavampaa.

Mikael Mäkinen