Top 3 countries and cities in 2030?

During the last week I’ve made some prognoses about the future in the world of different countries and cities. Let me start to explain my motivation for doing this. I’ve been interested in geography all my life and my mother always reminds me of the fact that I knew all the countries and their capitals by the age of 8. I still have the same world Atlas published in 1992 that I scrolled through on the living room floor of my grandparents’ house. In this atlas there are 187 countries mentioned. Actually this Atlas was published right after huge changes were made in European area. Soviet Union broke under several states, Germany had become united, and Yugoslavia had seperated to many different countries.

In addition, I’ve always found it intriguing to search information about countries and especially cities inside. I also think that the world has changed a lot during the last decades. After all, who would have foreseen after the Second World War that Germany and Japan would be in top three economies at the turn of the millennium? Or that tiny Finland, that suffered huge losses in wars on the 40s, would be a model country in education and technology. And that the same country of sauna and snow would give birth to one of the most innovative companies, Nokia, in the century.

I’d like to give my own prediction of the world economic powers and places in 2030. First of all it is really hard to specify countries and cities as I believe that the world will little by little lose its borders due to breakthrough of internet. Europe has already done it at least on paper creating European Union, and Asia and the Middle East are on the way.

I currently feel that the world superpowers are USA, EU, and Japan. Important decisions are done in these three regions even China and Russia have shown their power. City centers of the world at the beginning of 2009 are still New York, London and Tokyo.

So here is the list of my top three countries in 2030:

1. USA
2. China
3. Germany

And why?

I just have to admit that the United States will always land to its feet even it doesn’t look too good now with huge debt level and problems affecting the whole country. However, US will be able to use its strength; lifetime opportunities to be something to people all around the world. This is a huge competitive tool in the world of decreasing borders.

It won’t be hard to justify China’s presence on the list. China is developing at a huge rate and so far government has done a good job of controlling the mess. China has huge foreign exchange reserves base so it will not be too vulnerable to financial crisis in the world.

Germans are hard-working and cost-efficient people, and despite of the changing world towards East I believe that Germany will keep its affluence and power. When Germany finds a solution to its immigration “problems” and decreases its protectionism Germany is on the roll.

After these three countries I also expect a lot from Russia and India but current development is not enough.


And city areas:

1. New York
2. Shanghai
3. Guangzhou/Hong Kong

New York will always be New York. “Big Apple” is a place for a dream come true as well as lost hopes. Stepping into New York is an experience as it’s impossible not to feel the beat of Manhattan while in the city. Washington is near and listening carefully what Wall Street and other affluent New Yorkers are saying. New York is a real melting pot, crime rate is down, and public transit functions well. The city to be in the States.

Shanghai is on the vast growing phase which I belive it will be able to handle it by strict law enforcement. China is growing and Shanghai will be its economical locomotive. I believe that Shanghai is already the controlling city in Asia even Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong are near. Chinese have huge potential that is pouring to Shanghai, and it has also grown into a city that an expat can think of living in. And World Expo 2010 won’t decrease Shanghai’s importance in world order. The one thing that dropped Shanghai from being number one is huge population growth as people from countryside flock into the metropolis that will create troubles in future.

Guangzhou and Hong Kong are generating a business center in South-East China that creates a lot of business in future. Over 100 kilometres separate the cities currently but I believe that by 2030 the cities are in association. Pearl River Delta is one of the China’s most potential manufacturing and commercial regions, and Guangzhou is the main hub of the region. Hong Kong is a modern city and being already one of the financial capitals of the world it will bring the tandem a needed push to get the wheels rolling.

And to the countries that I wouldn’t give too much promise in next decades:

Southern European countries will face a lot of problems as nations are aging, governments are too bureaucratic, and tourism is diversifying around the world. Especially Greece, Portugal and Italy are in trouble without urgent actions. People feel that the countries keep going without concrete work and action as we can witness with Berlusconi being able to run Italy in a way that is just not acceptable. I still can’t understand that people voted him for another term. Southern European countries are living too much in a history but previous glory won’t help in future.

Japan has been in stagflation for years and I can’t see it growing big any time soon. Few problems are lack of natural resources, language skills, poor land connections to neighbouring countries and large cultural differences.

I’ve been in favour of EU but I can see clouds over union that I will comment more on my following texts.

And city areas:

Some of the cities I feel will lose its presence are Los Angeles, Tokyo and Mumbai. Even Los Angeles has Hollywood and all the glamour I don’t think it will last. First of all the city is on a bad spot environmentally with regular earthquakes. Secondly, public transport is non-existent creating vast traffic jams and loss of time. Third, people in LA are too much for the glory and wrong kind of ambition of fairy tales comparing to New Yorkers for instance.

Tokyo is a city that I can’t really get. A lot of people, everything in Japanese letters, and no nature anywhere nearby. To me it won’t work on a long term. Especially as it’s also locked by sea from other countries.

Everyone talks about the potential of Mumbai, and I have to admit that there are a lot of things going on there. But after visiting Mumbai it’s a real mess of traffic jams, slums, people and inequality.

Above opinions are just my own prognoses about future, and I’d like to hear your version about the world in 2030…

- Mikael